Success in Ecological and Population Dose–effect Radiation Modelling
Schematic of lobster and plankton population models, along with layout of the radiation repair mechanism that resides in every sub-model (seen clockwise from left).
A project to model the impact of chronic radiation dose on populations of marine wildlife has been successfully completed. Mathematical models for lobsters and a plankton foodchain have been produced, capable of simulating mortality, morbidity, fecundity and radiation damage repair, in combination with ecological pressures such as fishing and predation. The aim of the project was to put radiation dose in the context of other stressors. The work stems from the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) guidance to protect ecosystems from radiation, with emphasis on populations rather than individual organisms. The Westlakes project was funded by the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) as part of its call for proposals for underpinning the NDA Mission with Technology Development.
Detailed studies of lobster and plankton life cycles were conducted to determine appropriate biological input data. Models were set up and calibrated with additional ecological and radiation effects data and model tests were used to successfully validate dose assessment thresholds circulating in the scientific literature such as those recommended by the EC PROTECT project. The results from this work show that at typical current environmental radiation levels, both lobster and plankton populations appear to be adequately protected.
This project has contributed significantly in further advancing the field of radioecological dose–effect modelling, through developing and testing proof-of-concept approaches capable of informing environmental risk assessments. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has set up a radiation effects modelling group as part of the environmental modelling project ‘EMRAS II’ with radiation effects population models high on the agenda. The present Westlakes project will be included in an IAEA review as part of this drive. In addition, two research papers are being submitted to international peer-reviewed journals for publication.
For further information about this and other radioecology issues please contact us at:
Biokinetic.modelling@westlakes.ac.uk